Modeling of social and economic risks of nature management under climate change in landscapes of the Altai mountainous country
Year: 2025
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Introduction. Altai mountainous country is in the focus of scientific interest due to the intensive processes of deglaciation and climate-induced natural hazard events, distributed unequally among different types of landscapes and population groups. While glaciological and meteorological evaluation sex plain actual state and dynamics of changes in ice sheet and temperature trends, sociological data mayenhance scientific knowledge and give important insights about climate change perceptions, factors of adaptation and resilience, and social vulnerabilities. The purpose of the study consists in elaboration of statistical models measuring social and economic security/insecurity of population living in different types of landscapes of the Altay mountainous country under climate change and explain relationship with socio-demographic factors, health and land use. Research methods. The article is based on interdisciplinary landscape approach where landscapes are depicted not only as objective spatial entities but also cultural and social constructs shaping social representations and behavioral strategies. The study of peculiarities of perception of climate risks by the population of mountain areas of Altai and modeling population estimates is conducted on the basis of data from sociological expeditions in three mountainous regions (Altai Territory, Republic of Altai, Republic of Tyva, n = 913, age of respondents 18–80 years), covering seven types of landscapes differing by topography features, closeness to glaciers, presence of frost spots and the role of ice melting in the water stock. Cluster analysis was used to explore similarities and dissimilarities of inhabitants’ evaluations of natural events, associated with climate change in warm and cold periods, and structural equation models were elaborated for three groups of landscapes to find significant predictors of social and economic security constructs. Research results. This study has revealed that population living in different mountain landscapes has high a ware ness about climatic change sand associated natural events, complicating their economic and social activities. Regardless of the place of residence inhabitants note an increase in temperature anomalies, frequency and strength of winds, changes in precipitation, that could lead to problems with mountain water supply in the future. Evaluations reflect peculiarities of natural environment, but can be combined according to cluster analysis in to three main clusters of landscapes. In all three models increasing age and health issue sare associated with economic vulnerability, economic indicators have impact on social safety and adaptation, which in addition has different predictors in each group of conditions (education in first, sex and age in second, agricultural activity in the third group). Conclusions. Climate problems are an integral part of the life of the population of the high mountains of Altai, they are recognized as important and associated with health problems, economic damage, social and transport in frastructured eterioration. Modeling indicates that certain population group are more affected, and key aspects of natural resource use, such as farming and livestock production, mediate social and economic indicators of human security differently across landscapes. Resume. The results of the study are an important addition to meteorological and glaciological measurements and can be used as a basis for management decisions in the field climate policy.
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4412568576