Work

A Systematic Open Source Modeling Method for Energy and Power Systems: Solar PV Application

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Open source modeling has emerged as a transformative paradigm in energy and power systems studies by enabling transparent, reproducible and collaborative development of tools and models. However, limited access to high-resolution, localized input data restricts the accuracy and contextual relevance of many models, especially in regions with diverse climatic and infrastructural conditions. This paper introduces a novel, systematic Open Source Modeling Method for Energy and Power Systems (OSM-MEPS). Derived and synthesized from foundational steps outlined in modeling literature, OSM-MEPS is grounded in first-principles thinking, the scientific method and the engineering design process frameworks, ensuring technical rigor, empirical validation and adaptability. To demonstrate effectiveness, OSM-MEPS guided the modeling and simulation of a solar photovoltaic (PV) system using high-resolution weather and irradiance data for the year 2024 from Solcast-DNV. At the Serres-C site in Greece, OSM-MEPS model results achieved a strong fit with real-world solar PV energy data (MAE: 469.57 kWh, RMSE: 584.62 kWh,R2: 0.887), outperforming PVLIB (MAE: 1,400.39 kWh, RMSE: 1,526.11 kWh,R2: 0.232). Seasonal testing showed similar results: in May 2024, the OSM-MEPS model achievedR2: 0.917 vs. PVLIB’s –0.039; in December, it maintainedR2: 0.873 vs. PVLIB’s 0.638. Geographic validation demonstrated generalizability. In Pretoria, the OSM-MEPS model outperformed PVLIB (R2: 0.443 vs. –0.239); in Adelaide, it maintained accuracy (R2: 0.866) while PVLIB failed (R2: –0.959). In Kisumu, both models had low correlation despite matching MAE (0.88 kWh), due to data gaps and limited shading metadata. A rooftop energy feasibility study was carried out in Njagu-Mhasibu-Ruiru Estate in Kenya, based on a solar PV installed capacity of 8.75 kW. The OSM-MEPS model predicted an annual yield of 14,329 kWh/year, compared to PVLIB’s estimate of 10,048 kWh/year and the GSA reference of 12,784 kWh/year. Overall, the results confirm that the OSM-MEPS method and its resulting model are robust and adaptable tools for high-resolution solar PV energy modeling across diverse geographic regions and weather conditions.

Source: IEEE Access

DOI: 10.1109/access.2025.3592577

Authors: Peter Munyao Mutuku, Alan L. Leigh Jarvis, Andrew G. Swanson, Mohamed F. Khan

Institutions: University of KwaZulu-Natal, Stellenbosch University

Language: English

Topic: Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics

Subfield: Artificial Intelligence

Field: Computer Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,075