Comparative Analysis of Hybrid SARIMA-GARCH and Neural Networks for Chilli Price Forecasting
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: India's global dominance in red chilli production necessitates accurate price forecasting due to its volatile nature.The present study investigated the effectiveness of SARIMA-GARCH and ANN models in forecasting daily modal prices of red chillies in the Khammam market of Telangana.A dataset from January 2007 to December 2023 was employed and it was found that ANN model (2-30-1) outperformed SARIMA (2,1,3) (1,1,1)12 -GARCH (1,1) model in terms of forecast accuracy.These findings can inform farmers' decisions and aid policymakers in mitigating price volatility.
Authors: K. Sruthi Sai, K. Suhasisni, Md. Ali Baba
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4412630237