Work

Less alarming than assumed: New insights on diversion effects in German secondary education

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Reforms have aimed to make the German educational system more permeable. Today, obtaining the highest level of secondary education is possible regardless of the track to which a student has transferred. However promising, research has indicated that these hopes of easier upward mobility have only been partially fulfilled, as many students who began their educational journeys on a non-academic track displayed diversion effects—that is, a loss of initially high aspirations. Panel data allows for testing whether educational outcomes are influenced by the choice of school track among highly motivated students. Our results show that competencies and satisfaction are not affected once self-selection into tracks is accounted for. Regarding the attainment of the final degree, the difference between the academic track (Gymnasium) and the non-academic tracks amounts to approximately 13 percentage points. These findings suggest that diversion effects are smaller than previously reported. Policymakers, in particular, should be aware of these differences.

Source: Studies In Educational Evaluation

DOI: 10.1016/j.stueduc.2025.101495

Author: Felix Bittmann

Institution: Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories

Language: English

Topic: Sociology and Education Studies

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Quality education, Reduced inequalities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,570