Development of a model for mathematical prediction of the course of the disease in patients with nasal furunculosis
Year: 2025
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Background. One of the current issues in modern otolaryngology is infectious diseases of the nasal cavity, which are most commonly associated with bacterial agents. This category of diseases holds significant medical and social importance, as the majority of affected individuals are working-age people of young and middle age who require inpatient treatment and experience temporary disability. The conditions of martial law have led to an increase in the incidence of purulent-inflammatory diseases of soft tissues of various localizations among the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which represents one of the pressing medical challenges. Purpose – The aim of the study is to evaluate the factors and develop a linear prediction model for the severity and duration of hospitalization in patients with nasal furunculosis, based on retrospective data analysis. Materials and Methods. This study was conducted at the clinical base of the Medical Faculty of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine – the Municipal Non-Profit Enterprise of the Kharkiv City Council «City Clinical Hospital No. 30». Patient inclusion in the examination and treatment program was carried out after confirmation of the diagnosis of nasal furunculosis. The study was based on a retrospective analysis of anamnesis, clinical, and laboratory data of 141 patients with nasal furunculosis who underwent inpatient treatment at the Municipal Non-Profit Enterprise of the Kharkiv City Council «City Clinical Hospital No. 30» during the period from 2019 to 2024. Among them, 98 (68.5%) were male and 43 (31.5%) were female. The mean age of the patients was 40.9 ± 16.4 years (range, 14–63 years); 22 patients (15.6%) were over 60 years old, and 2 patients (4.6%) were under 14 years of age. Data analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 22. Differences were assessed using Fisherʼs exact test and Pearsonʼs χ² test where appropriate for categorical variables, and the Studentʼs t-test for continuous variables. Correlations were calculated using Pearsonʼs correlation coefficient. A p-value of < 0.05) was considered statistically significant. Results. In the studied patient group, the duration of the disease prior to hospitalization was 12.1 ± 4.3 days, and the average length of hospital stay was 8.1 ± 2.4 days. Data analysis revealed significant correlations between the duration of the disease before hospitalization and the length of hospital stay (r = 0.626); between hemoglobin and erythrocyte levels according to the complete blood count (r = 0.887); and between ALT and AST levels in the biochemical blood analysis (r = 0.881). In all cases, the correlations were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Using linear modeling, the most significant variables influencing the duration of hospitalization were identified: duration of the disease before hospitalization, patient age, levels of hemoglobin, lymphocytes, erythrocytes, and eosinophils. A mathematical model was proposed based on these variables. Conclusions. The conducted retrospective study of patients with nasal furunculosis made it possible to develop a linear model for predicting the severity of the disease course and the duration of hospitalization. The length of inpatient stay was found to depend on the patientʼs age, duration of the disease before hospitalization, hemoglobin level, and lymphocyte count. The practical application of this linear model can be recommended in clinical practice for otolaryngologists and general practitioners to optimize management strategies and personalize therapeutic approaches.
Authors: D.S. Samusenko, M.M. Popov, O.V. Martynenko
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4412789515