Work

Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 changes using a method that filters for decadal variability. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is -0.18˚C, with a range spanning from − 0.44˚C to 0.04˚C, which is substantially cooler than previous estimates.

Source: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z

Authors: Alex Borowiak, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown, Tilo Ziehn

Institutions: Australian Research Council, The University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO Environment

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,590