Work

Balancing Physical and Human‐Driven Morphodynamic Changes: Insights From the Pearl River Estuary

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The Pearl River Estuary, home to one of the world's densest human populations, exemplifies the delicate balance between natural dynamics and anthropogenic pressures. Our study explores how human activities and environmental changes interact to reshape this vital system, potentially driving it toward a tipping point. By integrating historical data, a Bayesian Network model, and a process‐based morphodynamic model, we quantify the relative contributions of sediment supply, land reclamation, dredging, sand mining, and sea‐level rise to estuarine evolution. Sediment supply remains the dominant driver, but human interventions and rising sea levels significantly disrupt the system's dynamics potentially leading to a tipping point in the estuarine morphodynamics of the Pearl River Estaury. We identify three distinct phases of estuarine evolution, revealing how cumulative pressures driven by anthropogenic pressure could force the estuary into different states with ecological, economic and societal consequences. These findings provide a general and transferable framework for detecting human impacts on estuarine systems and inform climate adaptation strategies.

Source: Earth s Future

DOI: 10.1029/2025ef005965

Authors: Junjie Deng, Hongze Yu, Yi Zhang, Jingyu Hu, Giovanni Coco, Jiaxue Wu

Institutions: Sun Yat-sen University, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), University of Auckland

Language: English

Topic: Coastal and Marine Dynamics

Subfield: Earth-Surface Processes

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Clean water and sanitation, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,180