Work

A dynamic early warning model based on LSTM-AM for property-based elderly care resource shortages in urban-rural integrated counties in China

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: As China's aging intensifies with the uneven allocation of resources between urban and rural areas, the shortage of resources for property-based elderly care services in counties in China's urban-rural integration zones is becoming more and more prominent. It is difficult for traditional early warning models to dynamically capture the fluctuation patterns of supply and demand of property elderly care resources. In order to predict the shortage of property elderly care resources in urban-rural integration areas and counties, and to optimize the “property + elderly care” service model, a dynamic early warning model of property elderly care service resources based on LSTM-AM is constructed. Taking Xuchang City, Henan Province as an example, the LSTM-AM network architecture is designed to integrate spatial and temporal characteristics, and the dynamic threshold calibration mechanism is used to realize risk grading and warning by integrating multi-source time-series data such as the aging rate of the county population, the coverage of property elderly care services, the operation and maintenance data of the community facilities, and the feedback from the residents' demands, as well as extracting the key indexes of the industry's response efficiency and the ratio of the service supply to the demand, and then designing a network architecture that integrates the spatial and temporal characteristics. The results show that the model prediction error (MAE ≤ 0.12, RMSE ≤ 0.18) is reduced by 35% compared with the traditional method, and it can warn the resource shortages 8–12 months in advance, and generate the program of facility allocation and personnel scheduling. The study shows that the model can analyze the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of resource shortages, promote the transformation from “passive remediation” to “active adaptation”, provide intelligent tools for the collaborative development of property elderly care in urban-rural integration areas, and help the construction of the “elderly care at home” system. The construction of “home-based elderly care” system.

Source: Scientific Reports

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-15555-y

Author: Qingheng Sun

Institution: North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power

Language: English

Topic: Aging, Elder Care, and Social Issues

Subfield: General Health Professions

Field: Health Professions

Domain: Health Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,690