Work

Probabilistic framework for risk-adjusted cost analysis of carbon-storage monitoring: insights from non-traditional sensing technologies

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) can help abate CO 2 emissions as we transition to a more decarbonised economy, although high costs associated with CCUS can deter its deployment. Here, a probabilistic methodology is developed for the estimation of the risk-based cost of remediation in case of a failure of carbon dioxide containment, as well as the lost opportunity if the CCUS project is decommissioned before its projected lifetime. Six different migration outcomes are considered, covering a range of possible primary containment failure and early project decommissioning events. These risk-based costs (RISKEX) are combined with capital (CAPEX), operating (OPEX) and decommissioning expenditures (DECOMEX) to determine the total cost of monitoring, providing a comparative, quantitative method for comparing the economic viability of monitoring suites incorporating the economic risk associated with failure. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the main cost assumptions and detection parameters, to provide insights into the main economic drivers of monitoring and containment risk management costs. Results show that although incorporating highly accurate non-traditional monitoring technologies (NTMTs) alongside conformance monitoring increases CAPEX and, to a lesser extent, OPEX, these costs can be partially offset by a slight reduction in RISKEX. A higher ratio of late to early detection remediation costs, and a low probability of false positive can significantly increase the economic feasibility of implementing monitoring techniques. The incorporation of NTMTs may also enable decreasing the frequency of conformance monitoring.

Source: International journal of greenhouse gas control

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2025.104446

Authors: S. Sethi, G.A. Fimbres Weihs, A. Azeem, D.E. Wiley

Institutions: The University of Sydney, University of Newcastle Australia

Language: English

Topic: CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions

Subfield: Environmental Engineering

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Responsible consumption and production

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,100