Work

Assessment of the impact of temporal and spatial factors on the emergency evacuation capacity of external spaces in high-density urban communities during earthquake disasters

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The frequent occurrence of earthquakes, their high intensity, shallow focus and wide distribution pose severe challenges to urban safety and economic development. In high-density urban areas, the challenges of evacuation during earthquakes are further compounded by dynamic population distribution, traffic restrictions and limited emergency shelter space. This study develops an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to assess evacuation capacity under different scenarios, including baseline conditions, time-segmented evacuations, and earthquake-induced disruptions, using Nanjing's Gulou District as a case study. The simulation results reveal significant temporal and spatial variations in evacuation success rates. Areas with high population density and insufficient open space experience severe congestion and overloaded emergency shelters, especially in immediate evacuation scenarios. Road damage leads to a 40% decline in evacuation success rates in directly affected zones, highlighting the importance of road network resilience. Moreover, weekday and weekend evacuations follow distinct patterns—office districts suffer from peak-time congestion, while commercial areas face evacuation delays during late-night hours. Vulnerable groups, including children and the elderly, face additional challenges due to mobility constraints and increased congestion in affected areas. The study underscores the need for better spatial planning and improved evacuation management to enhance disaster resilience in high-density urban areas. The findings provide valuable insights for urban planners and emergency response teams to optimize evacuation efficiency and minimize risks during earthquakes.

Source: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105760

Authors: Xiaotong Duan, Wenjun Fei

Institution: Nanjing Forestry University

Language: English

Topic: Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics

Subfield: Ocean Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,200