Work

Human Enhanced Moisture Transport Exacerbated the Extreme Precipitation in Northern China

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Although previous studies suggest anthropogenic forcing may influence extreme precipitation probability, few have specifically investigated the human influence on moisture transport. Here, we leverage the 2023 record‐breaking summer precipitation in Northern China (NC) to address this gap. Combining station observation with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs, we demonstrate that the 2023‐like heavy precipitation event was exacerbated by anthropogenic enhanced moisture transport. External forcing increased the probability of extreme southeasterly moisture transport by approximately 1.3 (90% confidence interval: 1.0–1.8) times. Moreover, the total anthropogenic forcing likely increased the probability of similar precipitation events at least 1.7 times (1.0–3.1), with both greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols contributing positively. As greenhouse gases concentrations rise and anthropogenic warming intensifies, the frequency of similar extreme precipitation events in NC is projected to increase further.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2024gl113900

Authors: G. Song, Y. Sun

Institution: China Meteorological Administration

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190