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A Bayesian network and DEMATEL-ISM based approach for evaluating resilience: A case study in inland waterway port

Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Ports are critical nodes in the global maritime transportation system, as they facilitate a significant portion of the world's trade. However, their central role makes them highly vulnerable to disruptions, which can cascade into severe socio-economic impacts. Despite the recognized importance of resilience, existing models often overlook the comprehensive quantification of interactions between resilience strategies and port disruptions. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a hybrid methodology that combines Bayesian Networks, Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The methodology systematically evaluates cause-and-effect relationships within and across resilience strategies categorized into absorptive, adaptive, and restorative capacities. Through the application of this model to a port terminal in northern Colombia, we identified 19 resilience strategies and demonstrated that adaptive and restorative capacities have a more significant impact on port resilience than absorptive capacity. Our findings reveal that interactions among strategies play a crucial role in resilience measurement; neglecting these interdependencies leads to underestimations that can result in misallocated resources and suboptimal preparation. This scalable framework provides decision-makers with a structured tool to prioritize investments in resilience strategies that yield the most significant impact, particularly when resources are limited.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107881
Authors: Fernando Gonzalez-Solano, Gina Galindo, Daniel Romero-Rodriguez
Language: English
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,350
OpenAlex ID: W4413239334
FWCI: 5.574
Cites: 91
Cited by: 11
Related to: 10