Work

Plankton Communities Behave Chaotically Under Seasonal or Stochastic Temperature Forcings

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Chaos is observed in natural systems, especially in ecosystems with populations characterized by a short reproductive time scale, such as plankton. We examined if external forcings can be the origin of chaos in a state-of-the-art marine biogeochemical model. Both a seasonal temperature cycle and noise added to this cycle were studied as external forcings, and their interaction with the dynamics resulting from biological interactions, such as competition. Our findings indicate that deterministic periodic forcing can induce chaos in the ecosystem only when biological interactions have already established periodic oscillations within the system. We conclude that random temperature fluctuations can be a driver of chaos in plankton populations, due also to the stochastic nature of the marine environment. The stochastic mechanism for the occurrence of chaos could find wide application in natural systems as it requires no preconditions.

Source: Ecology and Evolution

DOI: 10.1002/ece3.71930

Authors: Guido Occhipinti, Cosimo Solidoro, Roberto Grimaudo, Davide Valenti, Paolo Lazzari

Institutions: University of Trieste, National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics, University of Palermo, University of Catania

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,570

Funder: European Commission