Work

Atomic Offsets: Nuclear Policy Shifts for Arctic States in the Wake of Moscow’s Special Military Operation

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This article examines how Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has intensified nuclear reliance among Arctic states. Applying a new framework of “conventional-nuclear vulnerability,” it analyzes the nuclear policy shifts of Sweden, Finland, and Russia. The findings show that Finland and Sweden pursued NATO membership to secure nuclear guarantees, while Russia adopted riskier nuclear signaling and lowered thresholds for nuclear use. These developments highlight the growing centrality of nuclear deterrence in Arctic security, underscoring the challenges for U.S. and NATO policymakers in balancing assurance and deterrence in a volatile regional environment. Note: PDF passed accessibility checker before upload.

Source: Space and Defense

DOI: 10.32873/uno.dc.sd.16.01.1305

Authors: Wise, Molly, Hussong, Lillian

Institution: United States Department of Defense

Language: English

Topic: European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: diamond

Funder: Advanced Research Projects Agency