Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Studies that predict species extinction have focused on a range of flora and fauna but in regard to Homo sapiens there are, with one notable exception, no predictive studies, only considerations of possible ways this may occur. The exception believes extinction of Homo sapiens will happen in 10,000 years. We agree that extinction will happen, but we disagree on the timing. The world population is currently 8.1 billion, Given the decline in fertility between 2019 and 2024 and employing a probabilistic forecasting method in conjunction with 66% confidence intervals, we find: by 2139 the world population will be between 1.55 billion and 1.81 billion; by 2239, it will be between 4.95 million and 5.84 million and by 2339 there will be no humans.
Authors: David Swanson, Jeff Tayman
Institutions: University of California, Riverside, University of Washington
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4413352008