Tradeoffs between crop yield, agricultural residue burning, and groundwater depletion in India's wheat belt
Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Wheat is a staple crop in India, but yields have stagnated and are projected to further decline due to climate change. One way to increase yields is to ensure timely sowing, which allows the crop to mature prior to damaging heat stress at the end of the growing season. Using novel satellite data products that we developed along with a unique village-level dataset that we collated across India's main wheat belt, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), we examine the extent of late sowing, its drivers, and the potential tradeoffs of earlier wheat sowing on yield and sustainability outcomes. We find that sowing dates are largely delayed in the eastern IGP, and this is primarily driven by delayed transplanting of the previous rice crop, reduced access to groundwater irrigation, and delayed monsoon onset. Considering tradeoffs, we find that early wheat sowing is associated with higher yields across the IGP, but also with increased groundwater depletion in the western IGP and increased rice residue burning across most of the IGP. We use these results along with maps of where rice residue burning is occurring and where groundwater is over-exploited to identify location-specific interventions that can enhance early wheat sowing sustainably across the IGP. Such actionable information can be used by policymakers and practitioners to promote the most effective interventions that simultaneously enhance early wheat sowing, increased wheat yields, and environmental sustainability in the world's most populous nation.
DOI: 10.31223/x5pn05
Language: English
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Awards: FOOD SECURITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY THREATENED OVER THE UPCOMING DECADES DUE TO A GROWING POPULATION CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL RESOURCE DEGRADATION. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN INDIA WHERE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY LARGE WITH UP TO A 30% LOSS IN YIELD FOR SOME STAPLE CROPS BY MID-CENTURY (LOBELL ET AL. 2008). FURTHERMORE OVER 40% OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION RELIES ON GROUNDWATER IRRIGATION HOWEVER GROUNDWATER RESERVES ARE BECOMING RAPIDLY DEPLETED WITH SOME STUDIES ESTIMATING THAT A LARGE PROPORTION OF DEEP WELLS WILL DRY UP BY MID-CENTURY (SHAH ET AL. 2009). WHILE THE IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ON PRODUCTION HAVE BEEN WELL ESTABLISHED THERE IS LITTLE UNDERSTANDING OF HOW FARMERS RESPOND TO THIS CHANGE. YET IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACCOUNT FOR FARMER BEHAVIOR AS FARMERS MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE OR ELIMINATE THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE BY ADAPTING THEIR CROPPING PRACTICES. FOR EXAMPLE FARMERS MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE IMPACT OF WARMING TEMPERATURES BY SWITCHING TO NEW HYBRID CROP VARIETIES THAT ARE MORE HEAT-TOLERANT. UNDERSTANDING HOW WHY AND HOW EFFECTIVELY FARMERS MAY ADAPT THEIR CROPPING STRATEGIES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WILL BETTER IDENTIFY WHETHER INDIA WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD OVER THE UPCOMING DECADES.THIS PROPOSAL WILL EXAMINE LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE (LCLUC) OF AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND ATTRIBUTE THESE CHANGES TO LONGTERM ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE AND GROUNDWATER DEPLETION. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO UNDERSTAND HOW EFFECTIVELY FARMERS HAVE ADAPTED TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND HOW VULNERABLE CURRENT AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS STILL ARE TO FUTURE CHANGE. SPECIFICALLY WE WILL DERIVE NOVEL REMOTE SENSING PRODUCTS THAT QUANTIFY SMALLHOLDER CROP PRODUCTION INCLUDING CROPPED AREA AND YIELD FROM 1995 TO THE PRESENT. TO DATE MAPPING THE PRODUCTION OF SMALLHOLDER FARMS HAS BEEN DIFFICULT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST THE SIZE OF INDIVIDUAL FARMS IS SMALLER THAN THE RESOLUTION OF READILY-AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LIKE LANDSAT AND MODIS LEADING TO ISSUES WITH MIXED PIXELS.FURTHERMORE GROUND DATA RARELY EXIST TO CALIBRATE MODELS THAT TRANSLATE SATELLITE VEGETATION INDICES TO PRODUCTION MEASURES LIKE YIELD.WE PROPOSE TO DEVELOP UNIQUE METHODS TO OVERCOME THESE PROBLEMS THAT BUILD ON PREVIOUS WORK BY THE PIS (JAIN ET AL. 2013 LOBELL ET AL. 2015). WE WILL ALSO USE REMOTE SENSING TO QUANTIFY ADAPTATION DECISIONS INCLUDING SHIFTING SOW DATE SWITCHING CROP VARIETY AND INCREASING IRRIGATION. WE WILL LINK THESE REMOTE SENSING DATASETS WITH GRIDDED WEATHER GROUNDWATER DEPTH AND PANEL HOUSEHOLD DATASETS TO EXAMINE HOW FARMERS ARE RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND GROUNDWATER DEPLETION. THIS STUDY WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FARMERS ADOPT IN RESPONSE TO MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. WE WILL ALSO EVALUATE HOW EFFECTIVE THESE STRATEGIES ARE IN BOLSTERING FUTURE FOOD SECURITY., MAPPING SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE TO IDENTIFY THE EFFECTS OF AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR INDIA'S IMMINENT GROUNDWATER CRISISTHE PROPOSED STUDY WILL INTEGRATE THESE FINE-SCALE SATELLITE AND CENSUS DATA TO ACHIEVE TWO MAIN GOALS. (1) QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF GROUNDWATER DEPLETION ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA. TO QUANTIFY THE EFFECT OF GROUNDWATER DEPLETION ON CROPPED AREA YIELD AND SEASONAL WATER USE AT 8 000 WELLS. IT IS LIKELY THAT GROUNDWATER DEPLETION WILL HAVE DIFFERENT IMPACTS ON PRODUCTION DEPENDING ON HOW FARMERS ADAPT AND RESPOND TO GROUNDWATER DECLINE. FOR EXAMPLE SOME COMMUNITIES MAY MAINTAIN CONSTANT PRODUCTION LEVELS BY INVESTING IN MORE POWERFUL PUMPS AND DEEPER WELLS TO CHASE THE WATER TABLE. OTHER COMMUNITIES MAY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF IRRIGATION USED RESULTING IN DECREASED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. THROUGH THIS WORK I WILL MAP THE HETEROGENEOUS WAYS IN WHICH AGRICULTURAL COMMUNITIES RESPOND TO GROUNDWATER DECLINE AND TEST WHETHER THERE ARE ANY SOCIOECONOMIC OR BIO-GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL RESPONSES. THIS WILL DEVELOP A MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF HOW COMMUNITIES RESPOND TO GROUNDWATER DEPLETION WHICH CAN HELP ESTIMATE THE IMPACT OF GROUNDWATER DEPLETION ON BOTH CURRENT AND FUTURE FOOD SECURITY. SECOND (2) IDENTIFY POTENTIAL WATER-SAVING TECHNOLOGIES AND TARGET THESE TECHNOLOGIES TO THE REGIONS MOST AT RISK OF GROUNDWATER DEPLETION. SPECIFICALLY PARTNERING WITH ORGANIZATIONS THAT HAVE IMPLEMENTED WATER-SAVING INTERVENTIONS LIKE INTRODUCING DRIP IRRIGATION ACROSS HUNDREDS OF VILLAGES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIA. BY LINKING SATELLITE-DERIVED MEASURES OF CROPPED AREA YIELD AND WATER USE WITH GEO-LOCATIONS OF INTERVENTIONS I WILL ASSESS WHAT IMPACT THESE INTERVENTIONS HAD ON PRODUCTION THROUGH TIME. THIS WILL HELP IDENTIFY IF THERE ARE ANY EXISTING TECHNOLOGIES THAT SUCCESSFULLY REDUCE GROUNDWATER USE WHILE MAINTAINING HIGH PRODUCTION LEVELS. I WILL ALSO CREATE MAPS OF WHICH REGIONS IN INDIA ARE THE MOST AT RISK FOR GROUNDWATER DEPLETION AND WILL WORK WITH END-USER ORGANIZATIONS TO TARGET FUTURE INTERVENTIONS TO THESE KEY REGIONS. THIS STUDY WILL THUS BE ONE OF THE FIRST TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF GROUNDWATER DEPLETION ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA WHILE ALSO IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL STRATEGIES TO USE GROUNDWATER MORE SUSTAINABLY OVER THE UPCOMING DECADES., G8895158529, SEES Fellows: Interdisciplinary Research on Introducing Heat-Tolerant Wheat to Bolster Food Security
OpenAlex ID: W4413416842