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Wind-regime modulation of cloud, precipitation, and sea surface heat budget: case studies over the central Great Barrier Reef

Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is increasingly threatened by marine heatwaves and mass coral bleaching events, with local atmospheric conditions playing a critical role in modulating sea surface temperatures and heat stress. This study examines how synoptic-to-mesoscale meteorological processes shape cloud formation, precipitation, and the ocean surface heat budget across the central GBR during the 2021/2022 austral summer. Using a combination of observations, reanalysis data, and high-resolution convection-permitting simulations, two representative cases are analysed: a trade-wind breakdown period associated with early-summer heating, and a trade-wind regime linked to mid-summer cooling. The breakdown case featured enhanced convective available potential energy (CAPE), deep convection, greater upper-level moisture transport, and heavier rainfall, while exhibiting reduced latent heat flux due to weaker winds. In contrast, the trade-wind case is characterized by shallow clouds, dry atmospheric conditions, stronger latent cooling, and minimal rainfall. Mesoscale convective systems during breakdown periods generated temporally limited but spatially extensive increases in surface winds and turbulent heat fluxes, particularly near the coast where coral reefs are concentrated. These episodes contributed to localized cooling of the ocean surface, offering temporary relief from heat stress, with this effect not being captured in coarser reanalyses. This study highlights the crucial role of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric variability in influencing the surface heat budget of the GBR, with implications for predicting and managing coral bleaching risk under current and future climate conditions.
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175587867.74658092/v1
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4413427749
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