Work

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Spring Discharge in Data-Sparse Environments Using a Combined Statistical–Analytical Method: An Example from the Aggtelek Karst Area, Hungary

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This paper introduces a methodology for forecasting spring hydrographs based on projections from regional climate models. The primary study objective was to evaluate how climate change may affect spring discharge. A statistical–analytical modeling approach was developed and applied to the Jósva spring catchment in the Aggtelek Karst region of Hungary. Historical data served to establish a regression relationship between rainfall and peak discharge. This approach is particularly useful for predicting discharge in cases where only historical rainfall data are available for calibration. Baseflow recession was analyzed using a two-component exponential model, with hydrograph decompositionand parameter optimization performed on the master recession curve. Future discharge time series were generated using rainfall data from two selected regional climate model scenarios. Both scenarios suggest a decline in baseflow discharge during different periods of the 21st century. The findings indicate that climate change is likely to intensify hydrological extremes in the coming decades, irrespective of whether moderate or high CO2 emission scenarios unfold.

Source: Water

DOI: 10.3390/w17172507

Authors: Attila Kovács, Csaba Ilyés, Musab A. A. Mohammed, Péter Szűcs

Institutions: University of Miskolc, Obuda University

Language: English

Topic: Karst Systems and Hydrogeology

Subfield: Earth-Surface Processes

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137