Work

Water-efficient forage production in arid regions: Environmental and economic sustainability assessment using integrated emergy and Monte Carlo analysis

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study evaluates four forage crop systems (Kochia, Millet, Sorghum, Barley) in Iran's drought-prone Sistan region using emergy analysis integrated with Monte Carlo uncertainty modeling. A number of new sustainability indices were developed specifically for water-limited agricultural environments, including the Water Efficiency Index, the Climate Resilience Factor, and the Integrated Sustainability Index. Based on Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations), Barley has a 67 % probability of ranking first in sustainability across integrated environmental, economic, and water efficiency criteria. Millet demonstrated superior environmental performance while Kochia showed exceptional climate resilience. Multi-objective optimization indicated that diversified strategies with 30 % Barley allocation optimize system sustainability rather than monoculture approaches. This framework provides agricultural stakeholders with probabilistic decision-support tools for adapting forage systems to increasing water scarcity and climate uncertainty.

Source: Journal of Agriculture and Food Research

DOI: 10.1016/j.jafr.2025.102306

Authors: Jamshid Piri, S. Mirshekari, S.A. Hashemi, Issa Khamari

Institution: Zabol University

Language: English

Topic: Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis

Subfield: Environmental Chemistry

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Zero hunger, Climate action, Responsible consumption and production, Clean water and sanitation, Life on land

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,530