Work

Attribution analysis of interannual variability and long-term trends in the Yellow River runoff across the Jiziwan region during 1960–2022

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The Lanzhou–Longmen section of the Yellow River Basin, with particular emphasis on the “Jiziwan” region within the Loess Plateau. The study investigates the interannual fluctuations and long-term trends in annual runoff difference (ΔR) between the Lanzhou and Longmen stations from 1960 to 2022. Based on a basin-scale water balance framework, this research utilizes multi-source hydrometeorological observations and hydrological simulation outputs to evaluate the contributions of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (ETa), consumptive water use ( q ), and terrestrial water storage changes to the interannual variation and long-term trends of ΔR. The interannual variability of ΔR is mainly driven by precipitation variability in the Jiziwan region, accounting for 46.19 % of ΔR fluctuations. ETa also shows a negative correlation with ΔR (34.94 %), but this relationship is largely dependent on precipitation. The long-term increase in ΔR (+1.68 ×10⁸ m³/yr) is primarily attributed to intensified q , particularly agricultural irrigation and industrial withdrawals in the Hetao region contributing 74.25 % to the trend. A localized “evaporation paradox” is identified, where ETa declined despite rising temperature, owing to the reductions in solar radiation, wind speed, and soil moisture. These findings highlight the dominance of human-induced consumptive water use in altering regional runoff patterns and underscore the need for integrated strategies to manage water scarcity. • Variation of the runoff difference (ΔR) between Lanzhou and Longmen is examined. • Interannual variation of Δ R mainly depends on the precipitation in Jiziwan region. • Rising ΔR trend is largely attributed to the increase in human water use.

Source: Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102727

Authors: Shulei Zhang, Xiaodong Liu, Wanquan Ta, Zhi-Yong Yin

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Earth Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of San Diego

Language: English

Topic: Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Subfield: Water Science and Technology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Clean water and sanitation, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,600