Work

Bayesian Analysis of the Nexus Paradigm Predictions for Supermassive Black Hole Observations by the Event Horizon Telescope

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We present a Bayesian statistical analysis to evaluate the Nexus Paradigm (NP) of quantum gravity, using horizon-scale observations of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) and M87* from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). The NP predicts angular diameters for the dark depression, emission ring, and base diameter, which we compare to EHT measurements. Employing Gaussian likelihoods and priors informed by mass-to-distance ratio uncertainties, we compute the posterior distribution for the angular scale parameter θg, achieving a combined χ2≈0.0062 (four degrees of freedom) corresponding to a 4.37 σ (99.9972%) confidence level. Individual features show deviations <0.1 σ supporting the NP’s claim of 99th percentile agreement. Compared to General Relativity (GR), which predicts a shadow diameter inconsistent with the observed dark depression (χ2≈168, ~12.97 σ) the NP is favored with a Bayes factor of ~1036. These results validate the NP’s predictions and highlight its potential as a quantum gravity framework, though refined uncertainties and broader model comparisons are recommended.

Source: Universe

DOI: 10.3390/universe11090289

Authors: Stuart Marongwe, Moletlanyi Tshipa, Christian Corda

Institutions: University of Botswana, SUNY Polytechnic Institute

Language: English

Topic: Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations

Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics

Field: Physics and Astronomy

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,930

Funders: Office of Research and Development, Office of Research and Development, University of Botswana