Work

Multi-Task Graph Attention Net for Electricity Consumption Prediction and Anomaly Detection

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Precise electricity consumption forecasting and anomaly detection constitute fundamental requirements for maintaining grid reliability in smart power systems. While consumption patterns demonstrate quasi-periodic behavior with region-specific fluctuations influenced by environmental factors, existing approaches may fail to systematically model these dynamic variations or quantify environmental impacts. This limitation results in a compromised prediction accuracy and ambiguous anomaly identification. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel Multi-Task Graph Attention Network (MGAT) framework leveraging an adaptive entropy analysis. Our methodology comprises four key innovations: (1) the temporal decomposition of consumption data with entropy-based adaptive clustering into predictable low-entropy components (processed via multi-scale attention networks) and volatile high-entropy components; (2) the graph-based representation of high-entropy fluctuations through numerical correlation encoding, complemented by temporal environmental graphs quantifying external influences; (3) the hierarchical fusion of environmental and fluctuation graphs via a specialized Graph Attention Autoencoder that jointly models dynamic patterns and environmental dependencies; (4) the integrated synthesis of all components for simultaneous consumption prediction and anomaly detection. Experiments verify the MGAT’s performance in both forecasting precision and anomaly identification compared to conventional methods.

Source: Computers

DOI: 10.3390/computers14090350

Authors: Na Bai, Jian Zhang, Zhaoli Wu

Institutions: China University of Mining and Technology, Jiangsu Vocational Institute of Architectural Technology

Language: English

Topic: Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,172