The Circular Economy and Climate Change: The State of National and Global Evidence on Mitigation Potential
Year: 2025
Type: review
Abstract: Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights on how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socio-economic activities and service provisioning supporting societal wellbeing. We review the recent literature modelling the industrial system in Low Energy and Materials Demand (LEMD) futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modelling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provision. We find large potentials of combined supply- and demand-side measures to reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40-60%, and GHG emissions by 70% to net-zero. We call for strengthening interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modelling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and discuss challenges and recommendations. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428
Authors: Dominik Wiedenhofer, Jan Streeck, Frauke Wiese, Elena Verdolini, Alessio Mastrucci, Yiyi Ju, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Jihoon Min, Jonathan B. Norman, Hanspeter Wieland, Nuno Bento, María Fernanda Godoy León, LETICIA MAGALAR, Andreas Mayer, Simone Gingrich, Ayami Hayashi, Joni Jupesta, Gamze Ünlü, Leila Niamir, Tao Cao, Marianne Zanon-Zotin, Barbara Plank, Johan Vélez-Henao, Eric Masanet, Volker Krey, Keigo Akimoto, Bas van Ruijven, Stefan Pauliuk
Institutions: BOKU University, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, University of Brescia, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Leiden University, The University of Tokyo, Utrecht University, University of Leeds, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Iscte – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Ghent University, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, United Nations University, University of Freiburg, University of California, Santa Barbara
Language: English
Subfield: Strategy and Management
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4413786140