Work

Revealing the Driving Factors of Land Disputes in China: New Insights from Machine Learning and Interpretable Methods

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Land disputes pose a severe challenge for many developing countries worldwide. Understanding the driving factors of land disputes is crucial for social stability and sustainable development. China is one of the countries with the most severe situations of land disputes. This paper evaluates the land dispute intensity (LDI) across 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022. Using the GBDT model and interpretability methods, this study reexamines the importance of multidimensional variables in LDI, while also uncovering their nonlinear and interaction effects. The results show that LDI across 30 provinces generally and continuously increased after 2014, with this trend being notably curbed after 2019. In terms of the driving factors of LDI, the number of specialized farmers’ cooperatives plays the most critical role (mean |SHAP value| = 0.4). Variables such as share of primary industry, coverage of land transfer service centers, and agricultural product price index also exert a stronger influence on LDI. Clear nonlinear effects on LDI are observed for the agricultural product price index, the number of specialized farmers’ cooperatives, and the mediation rate of non-litigation disputes. In terms of interaction effects, when the mediation rate of non-litigation disputes is lower than 0.9, increases in the number of specialized farmers’ cooperatives and coverage of land transfer service centers tend to enhance their influence on raising LDI. When the ratio of cultivated land transfer is below 0.3, an increase in coverage of land transfer service centers is associated with a stronger effect in reducing LDI. Overall, this study uses the GBDT model, Shapley additive explanation (SHAP), and partial dependency plots (PDPs) to identify the main driving factors of land disputes. This paper can provide valuable references for developing countries and regions worldwide in addressing land disputes and conflicts.

Source: Land

DOI: 10.3390/land14091757

Authors: Jiayin Li, Bin Tong, Shukui Tan, Shangjun Zou, Junwen Zhang

Institutions: Hubei University, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Business University, Wuhan University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Land Rights and Reforms

Subfield: Soil Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137