Work

Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Extremes: Their Impact on Decadal Ocean Carbon Sink Variability

Year: 2025

Type: preprint

Abstract: The ocean carbon sink exhibits significant decadal variability, weakening (1990–2001) and strengthening (2002–2019), alongside its long-term trend. This study investigates how four types of ocean extremes—marine heatwaves, marine cold spells, high-wind events, and low-wind events—and their co-occurrence (compound events) drive this variability. We found that these extremes collectively explain 39 ± 4% of the decadal trend during the weakening period and 41 ± 7% during the strengthening period. Spatially, the impact of these extremes is concentrated in hotspots, primarily in the Equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, and Southern Ocean, which cover less than 10% of the ocean surface but account for 41% (weakening) and 56% (strengthening) of the total extreme-driven decadal trends. Our findings suggest that the inadequate representation of these extreme events in global ocean biogeochemical models may partly account for the discrepancies between model projections and observational estimates of the ocean carbon sink.

DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175648217.78030404/v1

Authors: Alexandre Mignot, Angela Landolfi, Karina von Schuckmann, Federico Serva, Peter Landschützer

Institutions: Mercator Ocean (France), Istituto di Scienze Marine del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, National Research Council, Flanders Marine Institute

Language: English

Topic: Marine and coastal ecosystems

Subfield: Oceanography

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water

Open Access status: gold

Funder: European Space Agency

Awards: G2787732228, G5571597859

OpenAlex ID: W4413824977

Cites:

Cited by: 1

Related to: 10