Towards resilient energy decisions: Integrating scenario-based weighting and Monte Carlo sensitivity in hybrid renewable system selection in Algeria
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Given the challenges of ensuring sustainable energy supply across different regions of Algeria and the need to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, this study presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating and ranking hybrid renewable energy systems. In two climatically and resource-wise distinct regions (Tamanrasset and Adrar), techno-economic simulations were conducted using HOMER software, and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) analysis was performed based on the SAW and TOPSIS methods. Seven key criteria—including initial cost, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), payback period, renewable energy production, energy losses, CO₂ emissions, and population coverage—were evaluated. The results showed that the Tamanrasset option, with a fully solar-based structure, zero CO₂ emissions, an LCOE of $0.225 per kilowatt-hour, and a payback period of 0.29 years, ranked first in five out of six defined scenarios. In contrast, the Adrar option, based on a wind/diesel structure with annual production of 7,425 kWh, ranked first only in the performance-focused scenario. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations revealed that Tamanrasset remained the top choice in over 99% of cases. The proposed framework, by integrating scenario analysis, uncertainty assessment, and multi-criteria modeling, serves as an effective tool for decision-making in clean energy transition projects.
Source: Results in Engineering
Language: English
Subfield: Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Field: Energy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,940
OpenAlex ID: W4413857725