Work

Multi‐Model Future World Aridity and Groundwater Recharge Changes With and Without Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Under High Warming Scenario

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Groundwater recharge (GWR) would affect by stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI)—a proposed solar geoengineering method. Using six Earth‐system models from the G6Sulfur experiment, offsetting Shared‐Socioeconomic‐pathway SSP5‐8.5 warming to SSP2‐4.5 levels, we assess aridity and GWR responses over 2070–2099. SAI reduces global aridity (+25.4% to +9.1%) but fails in GWR restoration (from −7.7% under SSP5‐8.5 to −7.6% under G6Sulfur) due to sustained evapotranspiration (+7–25%). Recharge deficits persist or intensify in the Mediterranean, northern midlatitudes, southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil, while partial gains remain in India, the Sahel, southern Arabia, western China, and southern South America, reflecting a “wetter/colder‐get‐drier and drier‐get‐wetter” pattern. GWR sensitivity to precipitation and evapotranspiration declines by 12.0% and 14.1%. CESM2‐WACCM and CNRM‐ESM2‐1 simulate the strongest partial recovery, while MPI‐ESM1.2s, IPSL‐CM6A‐LR, and UKESM1‐0‐LL show weaker or over‐suppressed responses. Results highlight regionally incomplete and model‐dependent SAI effects on GWR and the key role of CO 2 ‐physiological forcing.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl117234

Authors: Abolfazl Rezaei, John Moore, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Azfar Hussain

Institutions: Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences, University of Lapland, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Cornell University, Shenzhen University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change and Geoengineering

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190