Work

Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.

Source: European Journal of Political Economy

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745

Authors: Marcela Gomez-Ruiz, Paolo Li Donni, Maria Marino

Institutions: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, University of Palermo, Universitat de Barcelona

Language: English

Topic: Political Conflict and Governance

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,650