Work

Weathering change: Longitudinal patterns of residential mobility following extreme weather events in Australia

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: There is growing evidence of disaster-induced mobility. However, most research focuses on immediate displacement, limiting our ability to understand the long-term consequences of extreme weather events on residential mobility. To address this gap, this study establishes the relationships between home damage caused by bushfires, floods, and cyclones and ensuing residential mobility in the following five years. Using nationally representative individual-level data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey from 2009 to 2023, we use finite distributed lag logistic models to determine the level, timing, and direction of weather-induced mobility, distinguishing between onward and return movement and distance moved. While most moves occur in the immediate aftermath of an extreme weather event, results indicate that weather-induced home damage increases the odds of moving for up to three years. Four distinct mobility patterns emerge: (1) immediate relocation , which brings some moves forward, (2) delayed displacement up to three years later, particularly over short distances, (3) short-term displacement followed by return, and (4) repeat onward migration . Younger adults and renters are more likely to be involved in all mobility types. Tertiary-educated individuals are less likely to return, but more likely to move repeatedly, while separated individuals are more likely to be delayed movers. The diversity of mobility responses underscores the conceptual and methodological complexities of estimating weather-induced population movement and the need for nuance and caution, while showing the benefits of distributed lag models to capture time dynamics. Our findings also highlight the need for targeted support mechanisms that account for different mobility trajectories and varying constraints faced by sub-population groups in the aftermath of extreme weather events.

Source: Global Environmental Change

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103050

Authors: Sasha Bacquet-Carlier, Aude Bernard, Francisco Perales

Institutions: The University of Queensland, Griffith University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $6,440