Land use expansion without productivity gains: evaluating Bangladesh's National Environmental Policy (2018) using local projection analysis
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: : Bangladesh’s 2018 National Environmental Policy (NEP) was introduced to reconcile agricultural development with ecological sustainability—an urgent priority given that agriculture accounts for approximately 91% of national land use. This study investigates the NEP’s short-term effects on agricultural productivity and land-use expansion using local projection analysis, PCA-based fertilizer indices, and robust stationarity tests (ADF, PP, Zivot-Andrews) over the period 1981–2022. This timeframe ensures full climate data coverage, captures pre- and post-policy dynamics, and reflects agriculture’s 11–13% annual contribution to national GDP. The analysis reveals a policy paradox. Despite the NEP’s sustainability ambitions, agricultural productivity remained statistically unchanged (all *p* > 0.1), whereas agricultural land area expanded significantly (coefficient = 0.027, *p* < 0.01 at the 4-year horizon). This expansion appears to reflect the policy’s emphasis on conservation-oriented reforms; however, the precise influence of individual practices—such as agroforestry—can not be disentangled from the current dataset. These outcomes are consistent with Ecological Modernization Theory, which suggests that land-use reforms tend to be institutionally adopted more rapidly than productivity-enhancing measures. Accordingly, our findings underscore the necessity of complementary interventions to ensure that ecological goals are achieved alongside sustained yield growth in Bangladesh’s agricultural sector.
Authors: Md Ali Emam, Zhang Zhixin, Ehsan Elahi, Markus Leibrecht, Chen Ziang
Language: English
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,530
OpenAlex ID: W4413912103