Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: The rapid growth of space activities is raising unprecedented sustainability concerns that now extend far beyond space debris to include impacts on the Earth system and on astronomical observations. However, because these issues remain largely addressed in siloes, their coupled dynamics and the systemic consequences of mitigation strategies remain poorly understood. This study presents the first integrated assessment of Earth-space sustainability, bridging environmental and atmospheric science, astronomy, space engineering and space policy. First, interconnections and feedbacks within this complex system were systematically mapped and reported in a documented causal loop diagram. Building on this, a system dynamics model, COSMOS, was developed to simulate a subset of these interactions and their collective behavior, and was used to evaluate the effects of mitigation strategies derived from major policy documents. Results reveal strong interdependencies between issues, with most interventions -particularly debris mitigation - generating unintended detrimental effects on other sustainability goals. This fundamentally questions the feasibility of achieving all sustainability objectives simultaneously, calling for precautionary approaches combining mitigation with sufficiency. By establishing space activities as an integral component of planetary-scale environmental dynamics, this work lays the foundation for a more systemic and interdisciplinary approach to Earth-space sustainability.
Author: Loïs Miraux
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4413926941