A Short-Term Load Forecasting Method for Typical High Energy-Consuming Industrial Parks Based on Multimodal Decomposition and Hybrid Neural Networks
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: High energy-consuming industrial parks are characterized by high base-load-to-peak-valley ratios, overlapping production cycles, and megawatt-scale step changes, which significantly complicate short-term load forecasting. To tackle these challenges, this study proposes a novel forecasting framework that combines hierarchical multimodal decomposition with a hybrid deep learning architecture. First, Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) analysis is applied to identify key input features and eliminate redundancy. The load series is then decomposed in two stages: seasonal-trend decomposition uses the Loess (STL) isolates trend and seasonal components, while variational mode decomposition (VMD) further disaggregates the residual into multi-scale modes. This hierarchical approach enhances signal clarity and preserves temporal structure. A parallel neural architecture is subsequently developed, integrating an Informer network to model long-term trends and a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) to capture short-term fluctuations. Case studies based on real-world load data from a typical industrial park in northeastern China demonstrate that the proposed model achieves significantly improved forecasting accuracy and robustness compared to benchmark methods. These results provide strong technical support for fine-grained load prediction and intelligent dispatch in high energy-consuming industrial scenarios.
Source: Applied Sciences
DOI: 10.3390/app15179578
Authors: Jingyu Li, Yu Shi, Na Zhang, Yuanyu Chen
Institution: Inner Mongolia University of Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,896
OpenAlex ID: W4413944393