Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Land-use change and its interaction with petrochemical accident risk are critical for sustainable coastal development. This study established a multi-source data-integrated risk assessment framework, employing fuzzy C-means clustering to stratify petrochemical accident risk into six distinct levels. The analysis revealed the relationship between these risk levels and land-use type changes. Furthermore, the Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy dynamic model was applied to evaluate potential risks at representative coastal petrochemical enterprises. The findings were as follows: (1) Risk concentrates in small-to-medium private, newly established firms, primarily as explosion accidents. (2) The highest risk occurs in Bohai Bay, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong; national policies have reduced affected zones from 352.61 km2 (2019) to 43.67 km2 (2022). (3) The total potential risk zone spans 2986.21 km2, with high-risk cores in Hebei, Zhejiang, and Fujian (36.52%) and medium-risk in Shandong Peninsula (32.01%). (4) Risk primarily affects farmland and construction land; urban expansion has increased affected built-up areas from 16.36% (2012) to 47.02% (2022), shifting effects from ecological to combined socio-ecological consequences. These findings provide critical theoretical support and actionable management recommendations for integrating coastal land-use planning, urban expansion control, and coordinated petrochemical risk governance.
Source: Land
DOI: 10.3390/land14091811
Authors: Qiaoqiao Lin, Yahui Liang, Xue Luo, Zun Liu, Andong Guo
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,137
Award: G7969916552
OpenAlex ID: W4414018429