Work

One-dimensional simulation of land subsidence in vertically-heterogeneous highly compressible aquitards coupled with data assimilation via ensemble Kalman filter

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study presents a methodology for calibrating a nonlinear groundwater flow and consolidation model in highly compressible, heterogeneous aquitards, focusing on vertical heterogeneity. Inspired by conditions in the Mexico basin, where the nature of the aquitard sediments, along with pore pressure monitoring through piezometers, plays a significant role. The model combines a nonlinear one-dimensional groundwater flow algorithm with an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) for data assimilation, correcting hydraulic head ( h ) and vertical hydraulic conductivity ( K ) distributions. Four reference cases were tested, and three data assimilation strategies were explored: (a) only h measurements, (b) only K measurements, and (c) both. Results show that all strategies provide satisfactory parameter estimations and settlement predictions, with the combined approach yielding the highest accuracy. While the method successfully simulates subsidence, its effectiveness diminishes if data assimilation only occurs in the initial simulation phase. This methodology has strong potential for predicting subsidence in real-world heterogeneous aquitards.

Source: Environmental Modelling & Software

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106690

Authors: Berenice Zapata-Norberto, Eric Morales-Casique, Graciela S. Herrera

Institutions: Institute for Scientific and Technological Research, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geología, Instituto de Geofísica

Language: English

Topic: Groundwater flow and contamination studies

Subfield: Environmental Engineering

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,500

Funders: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México