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Agricultural Transformation and Farmers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This paper uses the randomized rollout of a national agricultural extension program in Uganda to study subsistence smallholders' decisions to adopt cash oilseed crops and shift to commercial farming. By eliciting yield and price expectations, we examine how beliefs evolve after the intervention and influence adoption decisions. Our findings indicate that technical and market information significantly raises farmers' expectations, leading to an average 15% increase in oilseed adoption. Results highlight the role of information in shaping beliefs and behavior, and suggest that addressing knowledge gaps and belief misperceptions about crop profitability is crucial for improving technology adoption and agricultural transformation.

Source: The Review of Economics and Statistics

DOI: 10.1162/rest.a.278

Authors: Jacopo Bonan, Harounan Kazianga, Mariapia Mendola

Institutions: University of Milan, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Oklahoma State University, University of Milano-Bicocca

Language: English

Topic: Agricultural Innovations and Practices

Subfield: General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDG: Zero hunger

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W4414144478

FWCI: 1.797

Cites:

Cited by: 1

Related to: 10