Work

Development and validation of a predictive model for COPD: a multicenter study

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death globally and a major public health issue in China. This study aims to develop a COPD predictive model and conduct risk stratification for key indicators not included. Methods: We collected data from inpatients and outpatients with COPD and non-COPD who were hospitalized between January 2018 and December 2022 at three different hospitals. The data were divided into a training set and an internal validation set, using logistic regression to build a COPD predictive model and perform internal validation. External validation of the model was performed using data from two additional units for the period November 2019 to June 2022. Results: A total of 1,056 cases were included: 740 in the training set, 316 in the internal validation set, and 408 in the external validation set. Six risk factors were identified: age (OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08), second-hand smoke exposure (OR = 8.27, 95% CI: 2.70-25.34), cough (OR = 23.52, 95% CI: 12.64-43.77), "occasional episodes of wheezing that are mild and do not interfere with sleep or activity" (OR = 6.06, 95% CI: 2.59-14.19), "bouts of wheezing that worsen with movement" (OR = 21.40, 95%CI: 10.32-44.37), and "persistent episodes of wheezing, occurring at rest, unable to lie down" (OR = 10.97, 95% CI: 1.02-118.28). The predictive model equation was: y = -5.920 + 0.047 (age) + 2.113 (smoke exposure) + 3.158 (cough) + 1.801 (wheezing 1) + 3.063 (wheezing 2) + 2.396 (wheezing 3). The model achieved 94.1% accuracy, 98.5% sensitivity, and 89.2% specificity, with an AUC of 0.976 (internal) and 0.691 (external). The critical cut-off value was 0.258. Conclusion: We have successfully developed a model for the diagnosis of COPD. The predictive model equation was: y = -5.920 + 0.047 (age) + 2.113 (smoke exposure) + 3.158 (cough) + 1.801 (wheezing 1) + 3.063 (wheezing 2) + 2.396 (wheezing 3).

Source: Frontiers in Medicine

DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2025.1615642