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Forecast Accuracy Comparison Between Holt’s Method and the Box-Jenkins Approach: The Case of Madiun City Labor Force Participation Rate

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Pacitan district was ranked first with the highest Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in Eastern Java Province. Meanwhile, Madiun city which is one of the largest cities in East Java Province, is ranked only 34 out of 39 cities in 2023. It is a matter of concern to the Madiun city government, especially the employment service, to deal with this problem. So that when the productive age to work can work. The percentage is issued annually by the provincial Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) or the city or district. LFPR is a timeseries data, so to predict the percentage of LFPR in the next year can use the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and ARIMA Box-Jenkins methods. On this study obtained that ARIMA (1,0,1) was better at predicting Madiun city LFPR than other methods. Madiun's forecast LFPR result is 67,19% in 2024, 67,20% in 2025 and 67,21% in 2026. MSE value is 14,48; RMSE is 3,80 and MAPE value is 4,75%.

Source: UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/413

Authors: Muhammad Qolbi Shobri, Yan Aditya Pradana, Putri Balqis Al-Kubro, Nayla Desviona, Nila Destia Nasra

Institutions: Universitas Muhammadiyah Madiun, Universitas Muhammadiyah Jambi, Universitas YPPI Rembang

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

OpenAlex ID: W4414185274

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