Work

A Shapley value-based dynamic ensemble framework for short-term load forecasting of industrial consumers

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The large-scale integration of distributed energy resources requires accurate short-term load forecasting for modern power systems to maintain supply–demand balance and operational efficiency. This study focuses on the demand-side forecasting of industrial consumers, which requires precise forecasting to optimize demand response capabilities. To address the limitations of static prediction architectures in capturing multi-scale dynamic features and high-dimensional coupling characteristics of industrial loads, we propose a Shapley value-based dynamic ensemble learning framework that strategically integrates statistical models, machine learning models and deep learning models. By introducing Shapley values in the cooperative game theory to quantify individual model contributions and dynamically adjust the ensemble weights, the method achieves robust adaptation to load variations while maintaining high computational efficiency. The follow-up case study on high-resolution industrial load data demonstrates its superior performance over conventional static prediction architectures and static weighting schemes across multiple scenarios.

Source: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2025.111102

Authors: Fengtao Li, Haizhou Liu, Hongrui Chen, Yuanshi Zhang, Weiqi Pan, Yujie Zhao

Institutions: Nanjing Normal University, Southeast University, State Grid Nanjing Power Supply Company (China), State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power (China)

Language: English

Topic: Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,920