Work

Patterns of dengue and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection in the light of deterministic and stochastic models

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We propose a new mathematical model to capture the overlapping dynamics of dengue and COVID-19 infections in a susceptible population, based on a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations. First, we calculate the basic reproduction number and present its use in the analysis of outbreaks, long-term dynamics, and parameter sensitivity. Then, we introduce an Itô stochastic version of the system and conduct numerical simulations to explore its behavior, which generalizes the deterministic counterpart. The model is validated with real-world data from Colombia, employing different approaches: global and sub-stages fitting. We describe the emerging challenges, namely, unidentifiable parameters and limited data availability. To simplify the least-squares optimization process, certain parameters were previously fixed. Consequently, the model’s results should be interpreted with caution. Overcoming these limitations will be critical to advance epidemic modeling.

Source: Nonlinear Analysis Real World Applications

DOI: 10.1016/j.nonrwa.2025.104505

Authors: Julia Calatayud, Marc Jornet, Carla M.A. Pinto

Institutions: Universitat Jaume I, Universidad Internacional de La Rioja, University of Aveiro, Universidade Técnica do Porto

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,780