Work

Confidence, animal spirits, and the macroeconomy in China: Based on mixed-frequency data models

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This paper employs the mixed-frequency Granger causality test, reverse unconstrained mixed-frequency data sampling models, and Chinese data from January 2006 to June 2024 to test the nexus between consumer confidence and the macroeconomy. The results show that changes in the real estate market, GDP, and urban unemployment rate are Granger causes of consumer confidence. In reverse, consumer confidence is a Granger cause of the CPI. Second, GDP and the real estate market (CPI and urban unemployment rate) have a significant positive (negative) impact on consumer confidence, while the conditions of industrial production, interest rate, and stock market do not. Third, the "animal spirits" extracted from consumer confidence cannot lead to noticeable fluctuations in China's macroeconomy. This suggests that the "animal spirits" will not dominate economic growth, even though they affect the macroeconomy slightly and inevitably. The results are robust after replacing the dependent variable and considering the influence of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Source: PLoS ONE

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0332909

Authors: Wanbo Lu, Qibo Liu, Haofang Li

Institution: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

Language: English

Topic: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,382

Funder: National Natural Science Foundation of China