Capitals Under Siege: Why Some Rebel Groups Achieve Victory While Others Fail
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Why do some rebel groups defeat the government while so many others fail? Scholars of civil wars note that rebels must often reach the capital to defeat the government. Yet, history is replete with rebels who have lost the war, despite reaching the capital. I offer a theory of rebel capital approach that helps explain why only some rebels are victorious. Introducing novel data on rebel approaches, and accounting for selection dynamics, I find that groups which lay siege to the capital are more likely to achieve victory than those that either blitz the capital from the periphery or form in the city and attempt to divide the government’s power from within. These findings underscore that both strength and wartime decision making are important to the outcome of war.
Source: Comparative Political Studies
Author: Gary Uzonyi
Institutions: Vilnius University, University of Strathclyde
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,900
OpenAlex ID: W4414372125