The coal phase-out in Germany and Central Western Europe under new framework conditions
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Emission reduction targets require a transformation of the European electricity system. In particular, emission-intensive conventional power plants have to be phased out. How far the transformation can succeed already by 2030 remains unclear and depends on multiple framework conditions. To shed light on this in some detail, we analyze the market-driven coal phase-out in Central Western Europe and the role of gas-fired power plants in the year 2030 in an electricity market model. Our model approach allows endogenous investment and decommissioning decisions for fossil power plants according to short-term market results with decisions on generation levels, short- and long-term storage operation and hydrogen production. We consider various scenarios with regard to CO2 prices and the expected increase of electricity demand in Europe with a focus on Germany, for which a regulatory forced coal phase-out as early as 2030 is also considered. The results illustrate how the expansion of RES reduces the capacity of fossil power plants needed in 2030 and, depending on the assumptions regarding electricity demand and the emission price, investments in gas-fired power plants, lead to additional decommissioning of coal-fired power plants. National plans for the phase-out of coal-fired power generation as early as 2030 in Germany lead to some cross-border effects, but production levels and market prices are not significantly affected by a market-based coal phase-out.
Source: Energy Economics
Institution: University of Technology Nuremberg
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,280
Awards: G1560898320, G762072234
OpenAlex ID: W4414400009