Work

XGBoost-Based Very Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Results

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Accurate very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) is critical to ensure a secure operation of power systems under increasing uncertainty due to renewables. This study proposes an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-based VSTLF model that incorporates day-ahead load forecasts (DALF) results and load variation features. DALF results provide trend information for the target time, while load variation, the difference in historical electric load, captures residual patterns. The load reconstitution method is also adapted to mitigate the forecasting uncertainty caused by behind-the-meter (BTM) photovoltaic (PV) generation. Input features for the proposed VSTLF model are selected using Kendall’s tau correlation coefficient and a feature importance score to remove irrelevant variables. A case study with real data from the Korean power system confirms the proposed model’s high forecasting accuracy and robustness.

Source: Electronics

DOI: 10.3390/electronics14183747

Authors: Kyung-Min Song, Tae-Geun Kim, Seung-Min Cho, Kyung-Bin Song, Sung-Guk Yoon

Institution: Soongsil University

Language: English

Topic: Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,896