Work

Forecasting road accidents in Poland and Croatia using artificial intelligence

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Road traffic accidents remain a critical issue in Poland and Croatia, even though recent years have seen a decline in their numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced mobility, but the persistent occurrence of accidents highlights the need for advanced predictive measures to improve road safety. This research leverages artificial intelligence, specifically neural networks, to predict the number of road accidents in Poland and Croatia from 2024 to 2030. Historical accident data were sourced from official records, including the Polish Police and Eurostat, and analyzed using multilayer perceptron (MLP) models. The results indicate a trend toward stabilization in accident rates, influenced by factors such as infrastructure development and rising vehicle ownership. However, the accuracy of these forecasts is constrained by the inherent variability in the data.

Source: European transport studies.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ets.2025.100035

Authors: Piotr Gorzelańczyk, Borna Abramović

Institutions: Stanisław Staszic University of Applied Sciences in Piła, University of Zagreb

Language: English

Topic: Traffic and Road Safety

Subfield: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,100