Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: In 2024, the global mean surface temperature rose above 1.5°C for the first sustained year, coinciding with a record atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate of 3.2 ppm. Satellite-constrained inversions attribute this CO2 growth anomaly primarily to elevated fire emissions, with the Amazon contributing 741 ± 61 teragram of carbon-its highest level since 2000 and more than half of the global fire emission anomaly. This surge, driven by exceptional heat and drought, offset two decades of declining deforestation emissions. Statistical projections show that Amazon fire emissions could increase by 53-199% by the century's end, spanning low-to high-emission scenarios. These findings highlight a growing fire-climate feedback, demonstrating how regional extremes increasingly shape the global carbon budget and complicate pathways to climate stabilization.
Authors: Jeongmin Yun, Sudhanshu Pandey, Kevin Bowman, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Junjie Liu
Institutions: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Language: English
Topic: Fire effects on ecosystems
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4414461865