Work

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dynamics with immigrants and control in Tanzania

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) remains a significant threat to livestock health and food security in Tanzania, driven by uncontrolled animal movement and limited control measures. This study develops a data-driven mathematical model to assess FMD transmission dynamics, explicitly incorporating infective immigrants and key epidemiological factors. The model employs a compartmental SEVIATR (Susceptible–Exposed–Vaccinated–Infective–Asymptomatic–Treated–Recovered) framework and computes the effective reproduction number ( R e ) using the next-generation matrix method. Local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium are established via the Routh–Hurwitz criterion and a Lyapunov function, respectively. Sensitivity analysis identifies the transmission rate and biosecurity effectiveness as the primary drivers of R e . Numerical simulations reveal that infective immigrants significantly increase R e , highlighting the importance of border control. Integrated interventions, including vaccination, movement restrictions, and enhanced biosecurity, are shown to reduce R e below the epidemic threshold. The model is validated with national surveillance data and achieves improved predictive performance by incorporating seasonal variation and time-series forecasting. This study provides novel, region-specific insights into FMD dynamics and informs policymakers on effective, integrated control strategies for endemic settings.

Source: Scientific African

DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02974

Authors: Issa Shabani Mfinanga, Theresia Marijani, Nyimvua Shaban Mbare

Institutions: University of Dar es Salaam, Sokoine University of Agriculture

Language: English

Topic: Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology

Subfield: Agronomy and Crop Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $590