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How extreme apparitions of the anthropogenic Middle East Aerosol Plume created, and continue to cause, drought in Darfur and the Sahel

Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: The IPCC and literature state that aerosols can affect the large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Hydrologic Cycle (AC/HC). The HC has changed significantly in the Sahel and Darfur, Sudan, where drought has caused at least 250,000 deaths and I therefore examine the relationship between aerosols and drought in this region. Aerosols exist mainly as eight continental scale, anthropogenic plumes which typically occur over a few months in the tropics at the end of the local dry season when biomass burning can occur. However, one plume, the anthropogenic Middle East aerosol Plume (MEP), is radically different. Extreme apparitions of the MEP only exist in the boreal summer and are caused by gas flares in the oil industry which were initially created in the 1950/60’s, increased in scale over the intervening decades, and continue to burn today. The flares burn “associated gas” produced during oil production and the MEP extends across the Middle East and North Africa from Iran to Sudan. It is therefore the prime candidate for investigation into the Darfur/Sahel drought. Using CMIP6, the LME and MERRA-2 data I show that drought in Darfur is created by extreme apparitions of the anthropogenic MEP which creates this effect by reducing the surface radiation under the plume and warming the upper atmosphere which reduces convection in the area of the plume and forces the inter-tropical convergence zone into an anomalous, southerly seasonal position. This altered regional AC causes drought in Darfur and the Sahel and higher rainfall to the south of this region.
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175883372.20643881/v1
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4414496898
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