Work

Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Lifetime‐Maximum Size in the Western North Pacific Since the Late 20th Century

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) often lead to severe damage and loss of life, with their outer‐core size being a crucial factor in determining their destructive potential. In this study, we detected an abrupt decrease in the lifetime‐maximum size (LMS) of TCs in the western North Pacific since the late 20th century, based on data from various sources. Composite analyses and numerical simulations suggest that the decrease in TC LMS is mainly driven by changes of the large‐scale atmospheric humidity in the vertical direction. Increased mid‐level humidity could enhance the inner‐core deep convection while decreased near‐surface humidity could stabilize the atmosphere and suppress outer‐core convection, thus reducing TC LMS. The changes in vertical large‐scale atmospheric humidity are induced by an intensified Walker circulation associated with a La Niña‐like sea surface warming pattern developed since the late 20th century.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl115918

Authors: Cong Wang, Kaiyue Shan, Yufeng Zhou, Yanluan Lin, Xiping Yu

Institutions: Tsinghua University, Southern University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190