Work

Evolution in Laryngeal Cancer Mortality at the National and Subnational Level in Romania with 2030 Forecast

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Background and Objectives: Laryngeal cancer imposes a disproportionate burden on speech, airway protection and long-term quality of life. Contemporary population-based data for Central and Eastern Europe remain scarce, and the post-pandemic trajectory is uncertain. Materials and Methods: We performed a nationwide, retrospective ecological time-series study using Romanian mortality registers and hospital-discharge files for 2017–2023. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated, county-level indirect standardisation and spatial autocorrelation assessed and joinpoint regression quantified temporal trends. Forecasts to 2040 combined Holt–Winters/ARIMA models with Elliott-wave heuristics anchored to Fibonacci retracements. Results: In 2023, 798 laryngeal cancer deaths yielded a crude mortality of 3.65/100,000 (95% CI 3.41–3.91). Male mortality (7.07/100,000) exceeded female mortality 18-fold. Rural residents experienced a higher rate than urban counterparts (4.26 vs. 3.04/100,000), a difference unchanged after indirect age standardisation. National ASMR fell by 3.7% annually (p < 0.01), yet five counties formed a high-risk corridor (standardised mortality ratios 1.59–1.82); Moran’s I = 0.27 (p < 0.01) indicated significant spatial clustering. Pandemic-era surgical throughput collapsed by 48%, generating a backlog projected to persist beyond 2030. Ensemble forecasting anticipates a doubling of discharges and mortality between 2034 and 2037 unless smoking prevalence falls by ≥30% and radon exposure is curtailed. Conclusions: Although overall laryngeal cancer mortality in Romania is declining, the pace lags behind Western Europe and is threatened by geographic inequities and pandemic-related care delays. Aggressive tobacco control, radon-remediation policies and expansion of surgical and radiotherapeutic capacity are required to avert a forecasted surge in the next decade.

Source: Medicina

DOI: 10.3390/medicina61101743