Work

Remaining useful life prediction based on exponential dispersion process with random drifts

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is one of the most important indicators to detect a component failure. RUL can be predicted by historical data by adopting a model-based method. The stochastic process models have become the most popular way to model degradation data for high-quality products, such as the Wiener process, gamma process and inverse Gaussian process. However, this leads to poor reliability assessment if the model is misspecified. Application of the Tweedie exponential dispersion (TED) process, including the above-mentioned classical stochastic processes as special cases, transforms the model selection problem into a parameter estimation problem dexterously. In this paper, we propose a TED process with random drifts for degradation data and a TED process with random drifts and covariates for accelerated degradation data. A hierarchical Bayesian method is adopted to estimate the parameters of the proposed models. We also derive the failure-time distribution and the remaining useful life distribution for the proposed models. The simulation study shows that the proposed model outperforms the wrongly specified models. Two illustrative examples demonstrate the performance of the proposed TED process with random drifts and the TED process with random drifts and covariates.

Source: Statistical Theory and Related Fields

DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2025.2555043

Authors: Pingping Wang, Yincai Tang

Institutions: Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, East China Normal University

Language: English

Topic: Reliability and Maintenance Optimization

Subfield: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: diamond

Funders: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, Higher Education Discipline Innovation Project

Award: G5504202875